000			01477nam a22001697a 4500
999			_c4502 _d4502
008			180406b xxu||||| |||| 00| 0 eng d
020			_a978-1-59420-411-1
082			_223 _a519.542 _bNAT
100			_aNate silver
245			_aThe signal and the noise : _bWhy so many predictions fail - but some don't / _cNate Silver.
250			_a1st ed. _b2012.
260			_aNew York. _bThe penguin Press; _c2012.
300			_a534 p . ; _bhardbound _c16x25cm
505			_a1. A catastrophic failure of prediction 2. Are you smarter than a television pundit? 3. All I care about is w's and L's 4. For years you've been telling us that rain is green 5. Desperately seeking signal 6. How to drown in three feet of water 7. Role models 8. Less and less and less wrong 9. Rage against the machines 10. The poker bubble 11. If you cant beat em 12. A climate of healthy skepticism 13. What you dont know can hurt you.
520			_aHuman beings have to make plans and strategize for the future. As the place of our lives becomes faster and faster, we have to do so more often and more quickly. But are our predictions any good? Is there hope for improvement? In The Signal and the noise, Nate Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy, ever-increasing data. Many predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty.
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