000			01025nam a22001697a 4500
999			_c4768 _d4768
008			180426b ||||| |||| 00| 0 eng d
020			_a978-1-847-94714-7
082			_223 _a003.2 _bTET
100			_aTetlock Philip, Gardner Dan
245			_aSuperforcasting : _bThe Art & Science of prediction / _cPhilip Tetlock , Dan Gardner.
250			_b2015.
260			_aNew york. _bPenguin Random house . _c2015.
300			_a340 p . ; _bsoftbound _c15x23cm
505			_a1.An optimistic skeptic 2.Illusion of knowledge 3.Keeping score 4.Superforecasters 5.Supersmart? 6.Superquants? 7.Supernewsjunkies? 8.Perpetual Beta 9.Superteams 10.The leader's Dilemma 11.Are they really so super? 12.What's next?
520			_aEverything we do involves forecasts about how the future will unfold.Whether buying a new house or changing job,Designing a new product or getting married, our decisions are governed by implicit predictions of how things are likely to turn out.The problem is, we're not very good at it.
942			_2ddc _cBK